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TLDR
AGR used cost scheduling software and probabilistic modeling to compare jack-up and semi-submersible rigs for an offshore drilling campaign. By factoring in weather risk, time variability, and cost uncertainty, a complex MODU selection decision was reduced to a clear, data-driven recommendation that stakeholders could quickly understand and approve.
FEATURED RESULTS
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OVERVIEW
AGR's Well Management was assigned to evaluate the best alternatives between the different Mobile Drilling Unit (MODU) types. The drilling campaign in focus was to take place in a water-depth that was within the capabilities of both a jack-up and a semi-submersible. The choice of which MODU was best suited given the weather conditions and the variance in costs was complex and AGR’s client needed a simple presentation of the best solution.
THE CHALLENGE
- Long lead-time before the start of the campaign and a very variable rig rate
- Differing weather conditions depending on the time of year the operation would take place Very different impacts of the weather on the operations’ capabilities of each different type of MODU.
WHAT VALUE DID iQx BRING TO THE CLIENT?
- Using P1 and probabilistic engineering model, the two options including the risk and cost estimations, were reviewed with a clear basis for the decision on which MODU to use
- The presentation to our client’s partners and management was refined to two slides showing the time and cost evaluation
- A very complex decision that could have resulted in much debate was distilled into an easily understandable choice.
KEY ENABLERS
- Logical breakdown of operational steps
- A systematic review of probabilistic time and cost scheduling for the campaign using the different types of MODU
- An objective review of the risks and range of possible outcomes
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